S&P 500 Monthly Returns During an U.S. Election Year The S&P 500 has historically performed well in August during presidential election years, contributing to an overall positive market sentiment and potentially extending the summer rally. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Small Cap Stocks vs. U.S. Large Cap Stocks U.S. small caps are currently viewed as an attractive investment opportunity compared to U.S. large caps, with several factors suggesting potential outperformance over the next decade. Image: BofA Global Research
Investment Grade (IG) Spread According to Goldman Sachs, Investment Grade (IG) spreads are expected to remain virtually unchanged over the next 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index Should investors stay optimistic? The rise in the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index is seen as a bullish signal for the S&P 500, suggesting potential for further upside. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Index and Earnings per Share Corporate earnings are the cornerstone of equity prices. Deutsche Bank’s positive forecast for the S&P 500 index reflects a general belief in the strength of these earnings. Image: Yahoo Finance
Global Composite PMI and EPS Growth The Global Composite PMI serves as a leading indicator for EPS growth, with its trends providing insights into future corporate earnings performance. Image: J.P. Morgan
10-Year/2-Year Treasury Yield Curve Around First Fed Rate Cuts The U.S. yield curve typically steepens once the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Fed becomes more imminent, rather than when the Fed actually stops hiking rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Flows – Net Buys 4-Week Average and S&P 500 Last week, BofA’s clients were significant net sellers of U.S. equities, unloading approximately $7 billion worth of stocks. Image: BofA Securities
Market – Current Pricing of Policy, Political and Macro Outcomes Investors are confidently predicting a 100% chance of a Fed rate cut on September 18, a 75% likelihood of Donald Trump winning the U.S. election on November 5, and a 68% probability of a soft landing within the next 12 months. Image: BofA Global Investment…
Performance – Large Cap Growth vs. Small Cap Value Large-cap growth stocks are outperforming small-cap value stocks at a level not seen since the dot-com bubble era. Historical patterns and the potential for economic recovery indicate that this trend may change in the long term. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Performance – Ratio of Russell 2000 Index to Nasdaq Composite Small-cap stocks are currently at a record low relative to the Nasdaq Composite. Factors that could drive small-cap stocks to outperform include a rise in M&A and IPOs, robust earnings growth, and changes in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy