Author: isabelnet

S&P 500 – Change in Liquidity Will the support given to U.S. equities through the increase in net liquidity since March 2023 persist until the end of the year? Image: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. Consumer Sentiment and Recession In recent months, U.S. consumer sentiment has improved markedly, mainly due to lower inflation, the positive performance of risk assets and a recovery in real income growth. Image: Deutsche Bank

History of Asset Bubbles The growing enthusiasm for AI has sparked concerns of a potential valuation bubble, as companies and investors occasionally develop unrealistic expectations about the technology and its capabilities. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

S&P 500 – CAPE Valuations While a high CAPE ratio can persist for extended periods without triggering a market correction, historical data suggests that such periods of elevated valuations are typically followed by lower stock market returns. Image: Real Investment Advice

What Do You Think Is Currently the Most Crowded Trade? The “Long Magnificent Seven” trade remains widely considered the most crowded trade among FMS investors. The popularity of these stocks may be attributed to their robust performance and dominant position in the market. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

Stock Splits and S&P 500 – 12-Month Stock Performance Distribution A stock split can often generate renewed investor interest and potentially lead to a positive impact on the stock price. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee

Central Banks – Global Monetary Policy Stimulus Leads Global Manufacturing PMI As global monetary policy stimulus tends to lead global manufacturing PMI by 8 months, could this signal the end of the economic slowdown? Image: Topdown Charts

Share of S&P 500 Stocks Underperforming the Index Despite the strong performance of the S&P 500 index in 2023, more than 70% of the individual stocks within the index underperformed, indicating that the overall gains were driven by a relatively small number of stocks. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Twitter Sentiment Index, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Despite strong economic performance, U.S. consumer confidence has shown improvements but has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating that the recovery process is not yet complete. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 with Start of Rate Cut Cycles and U.S. Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has tended to post positive returns in the 12 months following the Fed’s first rate cut, unless the U.S. economy enters recession. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Bank Reserves as a Percent of GDP As bank reserves relative to GDP gradually return to normal levels, they will no longer contribute to the upward momentum of equity valuation multiples. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management