U.S. Share Buybacks and Dividends Over the past 20 years, U.S. corporates have clearly favored buybacks over dividends, reflecting a shift towards prioritizing shareholder value through capital appreciation rather than regular income distributions. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Growth Fund Flows Record inflows into U.S. growth funds reflect the increasing investor confidence in the potential for strong returns from companies positioned for expansion and innovation in the American market. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Probability of U.S. Recession within a Year Based on the tight spread between the S&P 500 and BBB-rated corporate bonds, the risk of a recession in the United States within one year appears low. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Share Buybacks $7.6 trillion of S&P 500 share buybacks over the last 10 years. While buybacks can benefit shareholders, critics argue that funds could have been better spent on research, development, and employee wages. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Implied Probabilities for the U.S. Presidential Election The prediction markets are suggesting a high probability of a Republican sweep in the upcoming 2024 U.S. elections, with potentially far-reaching implications for the political landscape. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Wages vs. U.S. Inflation Americans are facing real pay cuts due to high inflation, which has been rising faster than wages over the past couple of years. This has significantly eroded the real wages of most American workers. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average Year for the S&P 500 the Fourth Year of a New President Historically, the fourth year of a new President’s term tends to see the S&P 500 perform best from mid-May to late September, with a notable rally often occurring during this period. Image: Carson Investment Research
Risk Appetite in Flows After Adjusting for Seasonality and Cyclical Growth Market sentiment is currently robust, with risk appetite in flows at the 85th percentile, falling short of extreme levels. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 EPS and Index Level Forecasts Over time, stock prices are driven by earnings. According to Goldman Sachs, the S&P 500 is expected to see earnings per share growth of 8% in 2024 and 6% in 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sell Side Indicator (Average Recommended Equity Allocation by Wall Street Strategists) The Sell Side Indicator, which tracks Wall Street strategists’ equity allocation recommendations, remains in neutral territory, with no sell signal triggered. Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. Tech Valuations – Forward PE Ratio U.S. tech sector’s valuations have surpassed post-COVID highs. However, historical precedent suggests that these high valuations may be challenging to sustain going forward. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management