S&P 500 Returns After >10% Gain in November and December When the S&P 500 posts a gain of more than 10% in November and December, it tends to perform strongly in Q1 and the following 12 months, with an average 19.5% increase in value seen a year later since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
GDP Growth and CPI Forecasts In 2024, global growth is expected to mildly decelerate, followed by a gradual recovery in 2025. Additionally, inflation is projected to gradually decrease across most countries. Image: BofA Global Research
12-Month Rolling Money Market In/(Out)Flows vs. NY Fed 12-Month Ahead Yield Curve Implied Recession Probability The probability of a U.S. recession can significantly influence investor behavior, potentially leading to a rotation out of money markets if the likelihood of a recession diminishes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Europe Market – Annualized Average of Monthly Real Price Returns High and falling inflation is generally a favorable environment for returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Additions by Year With an average annual turnover of around 4%, the S&P 500 sees significant changes, reflecting that many of its current companies were not part of the index ten years ago. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After 8-Week Win Streaks Historically, 8-week win streaks tend to be bullish for U.S. stocks over the next 12 months, giving investors a potential reason to expect a positive year in 2024. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. GDP Growth Forecasts Goldman Sachs is more bullish on U.S. GDP growth than the consensus and the FOMC’s forecast, reflecting their confidence in a stronger performance for the U.S. economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Economic Expansions and Recessions There has been a general trend towards less frequent recessions in the United States over recent decades, which reflects the evolving nature of the U.S. economy and its resilience in the face of potential downturns Image: USAFacts
Median Policy Rate Projections in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections The anticipation of rate cuts in 2024 and beyond is generally viewed as bullish for equity markets, as it signals a potential easing of monetary policy that can support economic growth and stock prices. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Free Cash Flow Despite a decline, the S&P 500 free cash flow remains higher than the historical trend, even during the current hiking cycle. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
S&P 500 – Election Year Seasonality During election years, the S&P 500 tends to trend sideways in Q1. Investors are typically cautious about the potential outcomes of the upcoming elections and tend to adopt a more conservative approach. Image: MarketDesk Research