Cyclical Sectors’ Relative Performance vs. Defensive Sectors Around the First Fed Cut After the first Fed interest rate cut, defensive stocks have historically shown stronger performance relative to cyclical stocks. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Market – Short Sellers Gains/Losses Market conditions and unexpected events have made short selling a difficult year, with over $145 billion in losses incurred. Image: CNBC
S&P 500 Total Return and Historical Inflation Peaks Historically, U.S. stocks have shown a tendency to increase when there is no recession following a peak in inflation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative Inflows Across Asset Classes Cash is the flow winner in 2023. Will it serve as the driving force behind the bull markets of 2024? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Average S&P 500 Returns by Election Cycle Year The dynamics and uncertainties of the electoral process often impact market performance in presidential election years, leading to a historical trend of weaker S&P 500 returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
FMS Investors – What Is the Most Likely Source for a Systemic Credit Event? FMS investors view the China real estate as the biggest source of a systematic credit event due to excessive borrowing, with significant implications for the Chinese economy and global consequences. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Total Return Performance Since First Fed Hike in March 2022 There has been a significant concentration of equity market returns following the first Fed hike in March 2022. This concentration should be considered by investors when structuring their portfolios. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
FMS Investors – Net % Say Global Profits Will Improve vs. ISM Manufacturing New Orders/Inventories There is a growing belief among FMS investors that global profits will improve in the future, which is encouraging. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
U.S. Core CPI vs. Unemployment Rate When Fed First Cut Rates It is rare for the Fed to cut rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, signaling the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures and its emphasis on maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Net % Investors Say They Are Overweight Bonds FMS investors currently have their largest overweight position in bonds since the global financial crisis, indicating their strong confidence in lower inflation and yields for the year 2024. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Fed Funds Rate and Dow Jones Index In the same way as it was in the 1970s, it’s all about the Federal Reserve. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy