Performance – Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 Seasonality Small caps historically tend to outperform the S&P 500 from December to February. Allocating a portion of the portfolio to small cap stocks during this time may benefit investors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Rate vs. U.S. Financial Conditions Index The decoupling of U.S. financial conditions from U.S. real rates persists. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Effective Fed Funds Rate and S&P 500 Index Return vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Return Is 2024 poised to be the year for bonds, given that the median relative performance spread between stocks and bonds in previous Fed cutting cycles has been 25%? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Growth vs. Value – Relative Price Return In 2023, growth stocks have outperformed value stocks by a significant margin. This is often the case when economic growth is relatively weak and inflation declines. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China Property Stocks The sharp decline in Chinese property stocks, reaching levels unseen since the Global Financial Crisis, is worrisome considering the crucial role of the real estate sector in China’s economy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Valuation Despite lofty valuations, the fuel behind U.S. stock market performance this year has been earnings growth, not multiple expansion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS) Declining wage growth and employment would allow the Fed to make substantial cuts in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 – % Stocks That Are Within 10% of Their All-Time Highs Highs The S&P 500 is nearing its all-time high, but only 24% of individual stocks are within 10% of their peak levels, raising concerns about market health, as gains are driven by a few large-cap stocks while others struggle to recover. Image:…
VIX and Geopolitical Risk Index The VIX tends to be sensitive to geopolitical events and can serve as an indicator of market sentiment during times of heightened geopolitical risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Home Price Forecasts Morgan Stanley projects a 3% decline in U.S. home prices for 2024. However, their bull case scenario predicts a 5% increase, while the bear case scenario anticipates an 8% drop. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Market Pricing of Fed Cuts vs. Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield When the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, it often leads to lower real yields, as investors adjust their expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research