S&P 500 Index vs. U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index The S&P 500 Index and the U.S. Citi Economic Surprise Index are often closely correlated. But right now, bad news is good news, until it’s not. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Performance After Bear (and Near Bear) Markets End Historically, the S&P 500 has consistently rebounded and performed strongly after bear markets. It has consistently delivered positive returns in the first and second year of new bull markets since World War II. Image: Carson Investment Research
Infrastructure Flows Infrastructure funds have seen their largest inflow since June 2022, signaling a positive trend for investors aiming for long-term returns and portfolio diversification. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
YTD Cumulative Gold Flows Despite the upward trajectory of gold prices, the trend of outflows from gold ETFs has persisted. However, bullion and coin purchases have surpassed gold ETF sales and central bank gold purchases since Q3 2020. Image: J.P. Morgan
Valuation – Russell 2000 Forward P/E The April sell-off has brought the U.S. small-cap forward P/E ratio back below the historical average, suggesting a potential undervaluation of small-cap stocks and creating buying opportunities for long-term investors. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. 30-Year Government Bond Returns The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is currently experiencing a challenging period in terms of its annual return, as it is on track for the 3rd worst annual return since 1919. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Global Equities – Weekly Global Advance-Decline Line of 73 Country Indices in Local Currencies The bullish weekly global advance-decline of 73 countries indices may positively impact global equities throughout the year, indicating an optimistic outlook for investors. Image: BofA Global Research
FMS Investors – Net % Say They Are Overweight Equities FMS investors have a greater appetite for risk-taking and a strong inclination toward equity investments. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Dow Jones Returns After 9-Day Win Streaks Historically, the Dow Jones has tended to experience bullish trends over the next 12 months following 9-day win streaks, with a median 7.9% increase in value observed since 1900. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – U.S. Equity Market Capitalization to GDP The U.S. equity market cap to GDP ratio is near an all-time high at approximately 187%, suggesting a significant overvaluation of the U.S. stock market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Surprise A strong 7% earnings surprise in the first quarter indicates robust performance by S&P 500 companies, which is likely to have a positive impact on investor confidence. Image: BofA Global Research