Flow – % Share of Rolling One-Month ETF Inflows Investors continue to put their money into large and mid-cap equity funds, as evidenced by their behavior reflected in ETF flows over the past month. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC Click the Image to Enlarge
Time Series of the S&P 500, Highlighting Periods of Stress and Response from Central Banks Post the 2013 Taper Tantrum, the interventions by central banks during market dips provided buying opportunities for investors to generate excess returns, rather than reasons to panic or sell off their investments. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Price Forecasts vs. Market Pricing Goldman Sachs, in its base case scenario, forecasts that the S&P 500 will reach a level of 4,700 by the end of 2024. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Stocks and Non-S&P 500 Stocks as a % of U.S. Large Cap Funds AUM Despite the abundance of stocks, the lack of interest in investing beyond the “Magnificent Seven” creates bias, leading to excessive attention and favoritism that may undervalue or neglect other investment opportunities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Financial Conditions and U.S. Recessions The Fed may face challenges due to looser financial conditions, as it requires tighter conditions in order to effectively curb inflation towards its 2% target. Will the Fed adopt a more hawkish stance next month? Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 – Monthly Seasonality for Year 3 of the Presidential Cycle Investors and traders can gain valuable insights from historical trends. In the third year of the presidential cycle, December has historically been a strong month for U.S. stocks. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Performance After Four Week Win Streak >10% When the S&P 500 experiences four consecutive weeks of gains and achieves a cumulative increase of over 10% throughout this period, it can be interpreted as an indication of robustness and resilience in the market. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – Distribution of Sector FY2 P/E Ratios Relative to S&P 500 The energy sector’s discount to the S&P 500 suggests potential investment opportunities for those who believe in the energy sector’s long-term growth prospects. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Passive vs. Active Rolling 6-Month Flows Flows into passive mutual funds and ETFs continue to surpass those into active funds. This trend is driven by factors such as lower costs, strong performance, and the rise of ETFs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – MSCI U.S. Forward 12-Month Price/Earnings Ratio vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Yield While rising real yields have historically been associated with a decrease in stock market performance, the U.S. equity market has showcased its resilience by delivering impressive returns this year. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Average Monthly Performance and How Often Each Month Is Higher in Pre-Election Years In December, during a pre-election year, U.S. stocks typically exhibit notable performance, indicating a positive trend and potential opportunities for investors. Image: Carson Investment Research