Number of Global Central Bank Hikes and Cuts The current trend of global central banks cutting interest rates at the fastest pace since August 2020 could significantly impact financial markets, borrowing costs, and overall economic activity. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – S&P 500 Normalized P/E Ratio At 22x, the S&P 500 is currently trading over 40% above the long-term average, which suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for stocks in the index. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
A Typical 10%+ Selloff in the S&P 500 The speed and magnitude of a rally following a correction can vary. The recent rally in the S&P 500 has been faster than usual, which is indicative of strong market momentum and investor optimism. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Distribution of S&P 500 12-Month Total Returns Goldman Sachs, in its base case scenario, expects the S&P 500 index to generate a total return of 6% in 2024, which is slightly below the average return typically observed during presidential election years.
Banks vs. S&P 500, Relative Price Performance U.S. banks are experiencing their lowest performance relative to the S&P 500 in the past 80 years. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Is the Recovery in Equities Sustainable or Likely to Reverse Soon? A significant majority of JPM clients believe that the equity recovery will reverse soon, indicating caution and skepticism towards the sustainability of the current upward trend in equity prices. Image: J.P. Morgan
Annual Real S&P 500 Index and 3-Year Average Annual Return Reversion to the mean in investing is the idea that asset prices tend to return to their long-term average, making it a powerful force. Some investors use mean reversion strategies to identify market opportunities. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 First Year of a New President in Pre-Election Years Typically, during pre-election years under a new President, the S&P 500 tends to experience a robust market rally as the election year approaches. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Price Returns by Year of Presidential Cycle While the fourth year of the presidential cycle has historically been favorable for the U.S. stock market, it tends to have lower returns compared to the third year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Possible Scenarios for the S&P 500 According to Goldman Sachs forecasts, there is a 25% probability that the S&P 500 index will reach 5,000 by the end of 2024. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Russell 2000 Returns After Last Rate Hike Should equity investors favor U.S. small-cap stocks following the last Fed rate hike? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy