Valuation – Distribution of Sector FY2 P/E Ratios Relative to S&P 500 The energy sector’s discount to the S&P 500 suggests potential investment opportunities for those who believe in the energy sector’s long-term growth prospects. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Passive vs. Active Rolling 6-Month Flows Flows into passive mutual funds and ETFs continue to surpass those into active funds. This trend is driven by factors such as lower costs, strong performance, and the rise of ETFs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – MSCI U.S. Forward 12-Month Price/Earnings Ratio vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Yield While rising real yields have historically been associated with a decrease in stock market performance, the U.S. equity market has showcased its resilience by delivering impressive returns this year. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Average Monthly Performance and How Often Each Month Is Higher in Pre-Election Years In December, during a pre-election year, U.S. stocks typically exhibit notable performance, indicating a positive trend and potential opportunities for investors. Image: Carson Investment Research
Number of Global Central Bank Hikes and Cuts The current trend of global central banks cutting interest rates at the fastest pace since August 2020 could significantly impact financial markets, borrowing costs, and overall economic activity. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – S&P 500 Normalized P/E Ratio At 22x, the S&P 500 is currently trading over 40% above the long-term average, which suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for stocks in the index. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
A Typical 10%+ Selloff in the S&P 500 The speed and magnitude of a rally following a correction can vary. The recent rally in the S&P 500 has been faster than usual, which is indicative of strong market momentum and investor optimism. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Distribution of S&P 500 12-Month Total Returns Goldman Sachs, in its base case scenario, expects the S&P 500 index to generate a total return of 6% in 2024, which is slightly below the average return typically observed during presidential election years.
Banks vs. S&P 500, Relative Price Performance U.S. banks are experiencing their lowest performance relative to the S&P 500 in the past 80 years. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Is the Recovery in Equities Sustainable or Likely to Reverse Soon? A significant majority of JPM clients believe that the equity recovery will reverse soon, indicating caution and skepticism towards the sustainability of the current upward trend in equity prices. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 First Year of a New President in Pre-Election Years Typically, during pre-election years under a new President, the S&P 500 tends to experience a robust market rally as the election year approaches. Image: Carson Investment Research