S&P 500 Returns After a 7% Gain in the First Quarter Since 1954, when the S&P 500 gained more than 7% in the first quarter, bears cried and bulls smiled throughout the year. Image: Carson Investment Research
Big Tech Stocks % of S&P 500 Market Capitalization Will the weight of big tech stocks in the S&P 500 continue to decline in 2023? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
WTI Oil Price vs. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) Oil prices tend to lead U.S. CPI inflation by 6 months. Image: Alpine Macro
S&P 500 ERP and S&P 500 Fwd vs. Trailing EPS The S&P 500 looks unattractive until the equity risk premium increases. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Dividend Yield Global ex-U.S. equities continue to offer higher dividend yields than U.S. equities. Image: Topdown Charts
FAAMG vs. S&P 500 and Remaining 495 Companies Will FAAMG’s outperformance persist in a stagflation environment? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
A History of Global Recessions and Causes Historically, banking crises, wars and pandemics cause global recessions. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Recession – Net % of Banks Reporting Stronger Demand vs. Tightening Standards Will the credit crunch lead to a recession in the United States? Image: Alpine Macro
Russell 2000 / S&P 500 vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Leading Indicator) The performance of U.S. small caps relative to the S&P 500 suggests a decline in the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Yield Curve – U.S. 10-Year – 2-Year Government Bond Spread Historically, the re-steepening of the 10Y-2Y U.S. Treasury yield curve from the trough has preceded recessions. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S. Bank Failures U.S. bank failures could lead to wider economic impacts, both within the Unites States and around the world. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management