GDP and Unemployment During U.S. Recessions The severity of a U.S. recession can be measured by the duration and magnitude of the increase in unemployment rate and the decline in real GDP. Image: Alpine Macro
German Stocks vs. Japanese Stocks Germany and Japanese equities remain below pre-COVID highs. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
G5 Central Banks Balance Sheet vs. Nominal GDP Growth Shrinking global excess liquidity tends to be a headwind for equity markets. Image: J.P. Morgan
Cash Flows Will flows into cash continue to be strong as rates rise? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Ownership of U.S. Government Bond Market Foreign investors remain the larger owners of U.S. Treasuries. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Housing Market – U.S. MBA Purchase Index Mortgage applications are on a downward trend as mortgage rates rise, which is a major factor in the slowdown in the U.S. housing market. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Performance – Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. Nasdaq Will the Nasdaq continue to track the 1972-75 Dow Jones Industrial Average analog? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Average Movements in 2s10s Slope Around U.S. Recessions Historically, when the U.S. 2s10s yield curve has been inverted by more than -100bps, a U.S. recession is currently happening or will happen within 8 months. Is it different this time? Image: Deutsche Bank
Germany 2-Year Government Bond Yield The German 2-year government bond yield, considered to be the most sensitive to European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate expectations, continues to rise. Image: The Daily Shot
Valuation – Relative Forward P/E of Bottom S&P 500 ex. Top Decile Stocks vs. S&P 500 The bottom 450 stocks in the S&P 500 remain cheap relative to the top 50 stocks. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Real Gold Price vs U.S. 10-Year TIPS The relationship between gold and real yields has been evolving over time. Image: Morgan Stanley Research