Performance – Relative Return of the Russell 1000 Growth Index vs. the Russell 1000 Value Index Will value stocks continue to significantly outperform growth stocks? Image: BofA US Equity and Quantitative Strategy
S&P 500 Bear Markets How long will the S&P 500 bear market last? Image: MarketDesk Research
Annual Total Return Performance of the S&P 500 and U.S. 10-Year Treasury 2022 will be remembered as one of the worst years for markets. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Credit-Based Recession Probability The U.S. credit recession indicator suggests that a U.S. recession is still less likely through the second quarter of 2023. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E – Bear Market Troughs The current S&P 500 valuation may suggest that U.S. stocks have not bottomed out. Image: KKR & Co.
Drawdown from 12-Month Rolling Peak – S&P 500 Forward 12-Month Earnings-Per-Share Estimate The median decline in S&P 500 earnings over the past 12 recessions has been -13%. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Earnings – PPI vs. U.S. EPS Growth U.S. earnings per share are expected to decline. Image: Steno Research
EPS – Real M2 Growth vs. S&P 500 12-Month Forward Earnings-Per-Share Estimate The decline in real M2 growth does not bode well for S&P 500 earnings. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Hit Ratio The past year was a challenging year for picking U.S. stocks. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Recession – Philadelphia Fed’s State Coincident Indexes – Number of States with Negative Growth Recession risks are still increasing in the United States. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
S&P 500 Excluding 5 Worst Days vs. S&P 500 Excluding 5 Best Days Timing the U.S. stock market is quite difficult. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research