Housing Market – U.S. MBA Purchase Index Mortgage applications are on a downward trend as mortgage rates rise, which is a major factor in the slowdown in the U.S. housing market. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Performance – Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. Nasdaq Will the Nasdaq continue to track the 1972-75 Dow Jones Industrial Average analog? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Average Movements in 2s10s Slope Around U.S. Recessions Historically, when the U.S. 2s10s yield curve has been inverted by more than -100bps, a U.S. recession is currently happening or will happen within 8 months. Is it different this time? Image: Deutsche Bank
Germany 2-Year Government Bond Yield The German 2-year government bond yield, considered to be the most sensitive to European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate expectations, continues to rise. Image: The Daily Shot
Valuation – Relative Forward P/E of Bottom S&P 500 ex. Top Decile Stocks vs. S&P 500 The bottom 450 stocks in the S&P 500 remain cheap relative to the top 50 stocks. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Stocks – MSCI Europe Value vs. Growth and 10-Year UST Yield Will European value stocks underperform European growth stocks in the second half of 2023? Image: J.P. Morgan
LEI 6-Month ROC vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change The 6-month annual rate of change of the Leading Economic Index is highly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth. Should U.S. equity investors remain cautious? Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Earnings Yield vs. U.S. 6-Month Money vs. U.S. IG Yield Goodbye TINA. There are finally attractive alternatives to the U.S. stock market. Image: Deutsche Bank
Nominal Effective U.S. Dollar and China Manufacturing PMI China’s rising manufacturing PMI is bearish for the U.S. dollar. Image: Alpine Macro
M2 Annual % ROC (Advanced 12-Months) vs. GAAP Earnings (Leading Indicator) The significant decline in M2 growth puts GAAP earnings at risk. Image: Real Investment Advice
60% Stock/40% Bond Portfolio Yield Less Six-Month U.S. Treasury Bill Yield The traditional 60/40 portfolio looks vulnerable. Is cash an attractive alternative? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management