S&P 500 – Trifecta of the Santa Claus Rally, First 5 Days of the Year, and January All Green Could the S&P 500 end the year higher with a double-digit gain? Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Equity Risk Premium vs. ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services The equity risk premium is likely to rise if a U.S. recession occurs this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – U.S. ISM Services PMI vs. U.S. CPI The ISM Services PMI tends to lead U.S. CPI by three months. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Valuation – U.S. Median 12-Month Trailing P/E and YoY CPI Inflation Historically, the sweet spot for valuations is generally a low inflation environment, between 1% and 3%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Earnings Surprise % Recent earnings surprises are slightly positive. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Recessions and ISM Services PMI The ISM Services PMI below 50 is a warning signal of a coming recession in the United States. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
The Trajectory of the S&P 500 Before and After Recession Start Date Will U.S. stocks follow the same trajectory as the 1969 recession? Image: J.P. Morgan
Gold Price vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Yield Rising real yields (inverted) did not have a major impact on the price of gold last year. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Cumulative Inflows to Equities by Region Will outflows from european equities persist? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Performance – U.S. vs. European Stocks Price Relative Will European stocks continue to outperform U.S. stocks in 2023? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy