Drawdown from 12-Month Rolling Peak – S&P 500 Forward 12-Month Earnings-Per-Share Estimate The median decline in S&P 500 earnings over the past 12 recessions has been -13%. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Earnings – PPI vs. U.S. EPS Growth U.S. earnings per share are expected to decline. Image: Steno Research
EPS – Real M2 Growth vs. S&P 500 12-Month Forward Earnings-Per-Share Estimate The decline in real M2 growth does not bode well for S&P 500 earnings. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Hit Ratio The past year was a challenging year for picking U.S. stocks. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Recession – Philadelphia Fed’s State Coincident Indexes – Number of States with Negative Growth Recession risks are still increasing in the United States. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
S&P 500 Excluding 5 Worst Days vs. S&P 500 Excluding 5 Best Days Timing the U.S. stock market is quite difficult. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real GDP Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs estimates a 35% probability that the U.S. economy enters recession over the next 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Relative Performance S&P 500 50 Small Stocks vs. 50 Largest Stocks Will the 50 smallest stocks within the S&P 500 outperform the 50 largest stocks in 2023? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. MNI Chicago PMI The MNI Chicago PMI for December was better than expected, but remains in negative territory. Will the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI fall further? Image: The Daily Shot
Valuation – S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio on Smoothed EPS The S&P 500 is still not cheap. Image: Stifel
Volatility – MOVE Index U.S. Treasury bond market volatility is still elevated, despite some improvement. Image: Morgan Stanley Research