Author: isabelnet

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. Growth Tax (Leading Indicator) Should investors expect a sharp contraction of the U.S. economy? Image: Alpine Macro

U.S. Bear Markets and Recoveries Should investors expect a further decline in the S&P 500? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Liquidity – Securities Held in Custody at Fed for Foreign Official Accounts Should markets be worried about a new international liquidity crisis? Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Fed Funds Rate and Forecasts BofA expects the Fed funds terminal rate to reach 3.25-3.50%. Image: BofA Global Research

Forecast – Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Should investors expect a higher terminal Fed balance sheet? Image: BofA Global Research

Median Change in Consensus FY0 EPS Estimates and NTM P/E Around the Start of Recessions Should equity investors expect earnings to fall, as recession fears mount? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Oil Impact on U.S. Headline Inflation U.S. inflation is likely to come down, as oil prices tend to drive inflation. Image: Topdown Charts

Flows – Outflows per Every $100 of Inflow Should investors stay cautious on equities, as capitulation has not been reached for risk assets? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Inflation Above 5% and Recessions Historically, when inflation exceeds 5% on an annualized basis, a recession occurs in the United States. Is it really different this time? Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Monthly GDP BofA forecasts a mild recession in the United States, beginning in the second half of this year and expects 4Q/4Q real GDP to decline 1.4%. Image: BofA Global Research

MSCI All Country World Index and Global Pairwise Stock Correlations The bear market bottom is probably not yet in, as stock correlation is higher at global market bottoms. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management