Yield Curve – U.S. 10-Year – 1-Year Government Bond Spread The 10Y-1Y yield curve inversion does not bode well for the U.S. economy. A recession in the United States is looking increasingly likely. Image: The Daily Shot
Germany Foreign Trade Balance Germany recorded its first trade deficit in goods since 1991. Could the euro fall further? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inflation – U.S. CPI and PPI vs. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Supply-chain pressures show signs of easing, which is good news for U.S. inflation. Image: BCA Research
Average at Past Bear Market Bottoms The bottom of the bear market is probably not yet in. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Average Monthly Decline During Bear Market Should U.S. equity investors expect more pain ahead? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Earnings – Cumulative S&P 500 Price Growth to Profit Growth Are S&P 500 earnings at risk? Well, the correlation between cumulative S&P 500 price growth and profits is very elevated. Image: Real Investment Advice
Market – Biotech ETF vs. Energy ETF (Price Relative) Will the rotation from inflation to deflation assets continue? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Global Stock to Bond Ratio and U.S. Recessions Should investors be worried that the global stock-to-bond ratio is rolling over? Image: MBR Partners
S&P 500 Earnings Revisions Breadth vs. Dollar Index (DXY) A strong U.S. dollar doesn’t bode well for earnings revisions. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Inflation Rate and S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio, YoY Change (Leading Indicator) The change in U.S. inflation rate tends to lead U.S. equity valuation by 6 months. Image: Pictet Asset Management
S&P 500 and U.S. Financial Conditions Should U.S. equity investors expect a new YTD low on the S&P 500? Image: BofA Global Research