Author: isabelnet

Copper to Gold Ratio and 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Does the copper to gold ratio suggest stagflation is around the corner? Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Continuing Jobless Claims and U.S. Recessions A jump in continuing jobless claims will signal an imminent U.S. recession. Image: Deutsche Bank

Progression of Bottom-Up Consensus S&P 500 EPS Estimates Consensus earnings estimates are likely too elevated. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Philadelphia Fed Survey vs. S&P 500 Earnings Growth Rate The bear market bottom is probably not yet in as the Philly Fed survey suggests an earnings recession is highly likely. Image: Real Investment Advice

Fed – Median U.S. CPI at the Start of the 13 Hiking Cycles Could the Fed cut rates even if inflation remains elevated? Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Index Forward 12-Month EPS Growth and Fed Funds Rate Historically, Fed rate hikes tend to be a headwind to profits. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

U.S 10-Year Treasury Yield and Banks/S&P 500 What will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield be at the end of the year? Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Valuation – 12-Month Forward P/E, MSCI AC World Could valuation decline further? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Composite of Leading Indicators and Recessions Does the LEI suggest a turning point in the U.S. economy? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Probability the U.S. Is in a Recession in Next 12 Months Including Today Is a recession in the United States inevitable? Image: The Wall Street Journal

Inflation – U.S. Headline CPI vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate Historically, U.S. inflation peaks before the unemployment rate bottoms. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management