Author: isabelnet

U.S. Monthly GDP BofA forecasts a mild recession in the United States, beginning in the second half of this year and expects 4Q/4Q real GDP to decline 1.4%. Image: BofA Global Research

MSCI All Country World Index and Global Pairwise Stock Correlations The bear market bottom is probably not yet in, as stock correlation is higher at global market bottoms. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Yield Curve – U.S. 10-Year – 1-Year Government Bond Spread The 10Y-1Y yield curve inversion does not bode well for the U.S. economy. A recession in the United States is looking increasingly likely. Image: The Daily Shot

Germany Foreign Trade Balance Germany recorded its first trade deficit in goods since 1991. Could the euro fall further? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Inflation – U.S. CPI and PPI vs. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Supply-chain pressures show signs of easing, which is good news for U.S. inflation. Image: BCA Research

Average at Past Bear Market Bottoms The bottom of the bear market is probably not yet in. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

S&P 500 Average Monthly Decline During Bear Market Should U.S. equity investors expect more pain ahead? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Earnings – Cumulative S&P 500 Price Growth to Profit Growth Are S&P 500 earnings at risk? Well, the correlation between cumulative S&P 500 price growth and profits is very elevated. Image: Real Investment Advice

Market – Biotech ETF vs. Energy ETF (Price Relative) Will the rotation from inflation to deflation assets continue? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Global Stock to Bond Ratio and U.S. Recessions Should investors be worried that the global stock-to-bond ratio is rolling over? Image: MBR Partners

S&P 500 Earnings Revisions Breadth vs. Dollar Index (DXY) A strong U.S. dollar doesn’t bode well for earnings revisions. Image: Morgan Stanley Research