Author: isabelnet

U.S. Manufacturing PMI and Global Leading Indicator Leading indicators are turning higher, signaling a growing chance of a global cyclical upswing into the first half of 2026. Image: Bloomberg

Returns for S&P 500 by Sector Since the Launch of ChatGPT on November 30th 2022 The communication services and IT sectors have far outpaced the S&P 500 since ChatGPT’s launch three years ago, powered by massive earnings growth and deep capital investment in AI. Image: Deutsche Bank

VIX – Volatility Index The VIX has retreated hard from recent highs, signaling that investors are less rattled by inflated AI and tech valuations and more hopeful about Fed cuts on the horizon. Market confidence is making a comeback. Image: Bloomberg

Performance – Bloomberg U.S. 500 Ex Mag 7 Index vs. FTSE All-World Ex U.S. Index The AI boom remains a U.S. mega-cap story for now, leaving the global balance mostly untouched. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Returns in December if >5% YTD End of November in Year One of Presidential Cycle Bulls are in luck. Since 1945, whenever the S&P 500 was up more than 5% YTD by November’s end in the first year of a presidential cycle, December has never missed and kept the rally going with an…

S&P 500 – MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity points to only modest S&P 500 gains in the first half of 2026, rather than a surge. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank sees U.S. growth staying strong through 2028, with core inflation easing toward the Fed’s 2% target and job markets holding firm. Image: Deutsche Bank Click the Image to Enlarge

Composition of Fed Liabilities with Projections With QT ending, the Fed will pivot to reserve management purchases of Treasury bills in early 2026. Goldman Sachs expects bank reserves to climb past $3 trillion by late next year, a sign that liquidity is finally loosening again. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 December Returns The S&P 500 lost ground last December, but two red Decembers in a row are rare. That track record may give bulls hope for a Santa Claus rally and a strong finish to the year. Image: Carson Investment Research

Gold Positioning Rising long positions in gold over the past two weeks point to strengthening demand, a classic bullish sign that keeps the rally in play. Image: Bloomberg

Asset Class Flow The surge of capital into U.S. stock funds in 2025 was largely fueled by optimism around growth prospects, strong earnings, and heavy investments by tech and AI giants. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy