Valuation – World Technology 12-Month Forward Earnings Yield Minus 2.5% and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield Tech stocks are less attractive, as the world tech 12-month forward earnings yield minus 2.5% has reached the upper limit to bond yield. Image: BCA Research
Nominal GDP Growth Nominal GDP growth is expected to be strong over the next couple of years. Image: BCA Research
Inflation – Cost of Shipping Goods from China Container rates from China are rocketing higher. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Change in Relative Valuation Since Antitrust Lawsuit Filing Big tech companies tend to underperform following lawsuit filing. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Length of Time before Jobs Fully Returned after a Recession How long will it take for the U.S. labor market to fully recover? Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
S&P 500 Performance on Friday the 13th since 1928 Historically, U.S. stocks tend to do well on Friday the 13th in August. Image: LPL Research
Put to Call Trend Deviation Model vs. S&P 500 The put to call ratio (deviation from trend) is still bullish for the S&P 500. Image: Longview Economics
Top Five Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The S&P 500 remains abnormally concentrated. Facebook, Apple, Amazon, MicroSoft and Google (Alphabet) account for 22% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China 10-Year Government Bond Yield and USD/CNY (Leading Indicator) China 10-year government bond yield tends to lead USD/CNY by 3 months. Image: Alpine Macro
Stocks – GRANOLAS Dividend Yield and German 10-Year Bond Yield Europe does not have the FAAMGs, but it has the GRANOLAS (Glaxosmithkline, Roche, ASML, Nestle, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, L’Oreal, LVMH, Astrazeneca, SAP and Sanofi). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inequality – U.S. Households’ Share of Excess Savings U.S. households’ excess savings are going to the wealthy. Could excess savings drive the U.S. stock market higher? Image: Oxford Economics