Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Despite stretched valuations by historical standards, the S&P 500 is trading near fair value, and earnings growth is set to underpin further upside as the economy gains momentum into next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Fund Rate Forecasts Nomura projects two further rate cuts this year, followed by three more in March, June, and September of next year, bringing the terminal rate to 2.875%. Image: Nomura
Equity Sector Flows Money keeps flowing into industrials and financials, while energy and health care still see pronounced outflows. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed has revised its Q4 2025 U.S. real GDP Nowcast upward to 2.46%, from 2.18% last week, signaling continued economic growth. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread The AAII bull-bear spread points to a balanced mood among U.S. retail investors who expect stock prices to decline in the near term—a condition that could set the stage for a sharper move in either direction. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession Markets now assign a 20% chance of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months—a level modestly above the historical average that points to a moderate risk environment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies ranking in the 92nd percentile continue to show a strong bullish bias in equities, driven by robust technical momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Small Cap Equity Positioning Positioning in small-cap equities has increased rapidly, reaching a neutral 53rd percentile and leaving room for greater exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 89.88, the S&P 500 is firmly in overbought territory, a sign of frothy buying pressure and limited room left on the upside. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Returns in September Late September is often a banana-peel moment for U.S. stocks, when markets have a tendency to slip. Image: Carson Investment Research
Consolidated Equity Positioning With consolidated equity positioning sitting in the 64th percentile—moderately overweight—markets still have room to push higher. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation