U.S. Presidential Approval Rating vs. Consumer Confidence Trump’s approval exceeds Biden’s late-term lows, but deteriorating consumer confidence’s predictive power signals substantial downside risk as economic anxieties translate into political consequences. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Returns the First 100 Days of a New Term The S&P 500’s 7.8% decline during Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office represents the worst start to a president’s term since Richard Nixon’s in 1973. Image: Yahoo Finance
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With the S&P 500 surging 4.59% last week, bulls are so bullish that they’re already heading for the moon and beyond, convinced the S&P 500 will blast off by the end of 2025! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
Google Searches for “Global Financial Crisis” and “Great Recession” While fears of a 2025 tariff-driven recession evoke memories of 2008, some investors see today’s prevailing pessimism as a contrarian bullish signal for stocks. Historically, extreme bearish sentiment has often marked market bottoms. Image: CNBC
Sentiment – GS Business Optimism Tracker U.S. business optimism has seen a significant and widespread decline in early 2025, as multiple indicators and surveys report sharp drops in sentiment among CEOs, CFOs, and small business owners. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hard Data vs. Soft Data The notable divergence between soft and hard economic data highlights the challenge of interpreting the true state of the economy. While sentiment surveys suggest caution, hard data has yet to confirm a significant slowdown. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With the S&P 500 jumping 4.59% last week, bulls are celebrating like they just hit the jackpot, while bears are trying to find their lost optimism! Have a Great Week, Everyone! 😎
S&P 500 Performance After >70% Advancers Three Days in a Row on the NYSE Historically, three consecutive days with over 70% NYSE advancers signal strong bullish momentum. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered positive 12-month returns 96% of the time, averaging an 18.9% gain. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 2025 EPS Estimate After Tariff Impact Deutsche Bank slashed its 2025 S&P 500 EPS estimate to $240 (from $282) due to tariffs’ outsized burden on U.S. companies. The S&P 500 index could rally to 6,150 if trade tensions meaningfully abate. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Gold vs. Other Asset Total Returns A performance rotation from stocks to gold is emerging. This may signal the beginning of a broader shift, as Trump’s efforts to weaken the dollar and lower rates coincide with a deteriorating outlook for equities. Image: Topdown Charts
Sentiment/VIX Composite vs. S&P 500 Current low levels of the Sentiment/VIX Composite Index tend to coincide with market lows, indicating potential buying opportunities rather than the onset of larger market reversions. Image: Real Investment Advice