Author: isabelnet

MOVE, VIX and FX Volatility The “Goldilocks summer” of market calm is essentially over, as mounting concerns about the U.S. economy awaken markets from their seasonal slumber. Image: Bloomberg

90/90 Days and What the S&P 500 Did Next The “90/90 days” back to 1980 often coincide with major policy events or changes, serving as drivers or inflection points for markets. Powell’s recent dovish pivot at Jackson Hole is a notable example. Image: Carson Investment Research

CAPE Valuations and Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend The current elevated Shiller CAPE ratio suggests that U.S. stock valuations are stretched relative to historical averages, a condition that has often preceded lower long-term investor returns. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI inflation by three months, indicating that changes in the index can help predict future CPI trends. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Revenues The reported 4.8% real revenue growth for the S&P 500 excluding energy in Q2 2025 is a strong indicator of economic strength, marking the highest growth since early 2022. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Dollar Around Fed Cuts Typically, the U.S. dollar experiences weakness before the Fed’s initial rate cut, followed by possible strengthening or stabilization as the easing cycle progresses. Image: TS Lombard

Hedge Fund Gross and Net Leverage With gross leverage remaining high and net leverage near its historical norm, hedge funds are able to sustain increased trading activity without markedly increasing their net market exposure. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Return Around First Fed Cut After Being on Hold for 6+ Months Historically, when the Fed resumes rate cuts after at least six months of holding rates steady, U.S. stocks have often posted strong returns in the subsequent 12 months, particularly if economic growth persists. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields with Various Moving Averages When the Fed prioritizes the labor market over inflation, it can reduce the immediate risk of recession by sustaining employment. However, this is likely to increase inflation expectations and push yields higher. Image: J.P. Morgan

China’s Stock Performance – CSI 300 Index vs. M1 Money Sypply YoY Growth The growth rate of the M1 money supply, a key driver of liquidity and investment capacity, tends to correlate with China’s stock market. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Real Yields and Gold Gold’s typical inverse link to real rates is fundamental, but inflation expectations, central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and investor sentiment driven by debt and fiscal worries can disrupt this relationship for extended periods. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research