U.S. Correlation Between GDP and Equity Market This chart shows the correlation between U.S. GDP and U.S. equity market (R² = 0.50). U.S. equity prices suggest U.S. GDP growth of 0.7% YoY in Q3 2020. Image: Deutsche Bank
G4 GDP Forecast Deutsche Bank expects G4 GDP levels to remain well below the pre-crisis trend. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Quantitative Easing – Net Asset Purchases for G-7 Central Banks Net asset purchases for G-7 central banks approached $1.4 trillion in March. To put things in perspective, this is more than five times higher than the previous peak of $270 billion in April 2009. Image: Bloomberg
Unemployment – April 2020 Expected U.S. Job Losses by Industry This chart suggests the job losses expected in April 2020 by industry in the United States. Image: Oxford Economics
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and S&P Bear/Base/Bull Targets Morgan Stanley raises its year-end S&P Bear/Base/Bull targets to 2500/3000/3250, as the equity risk premium could quickly disappear. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
CTAs’ Net Position in S&P 500 Futures vs. S&P 500 Chart suggesting that there would be less short squeezes, as CTAs are covering short S&P 500 future positions. Image: Nomura
S&P 500 Forward 2-Year P/E Ratio The U.S. stock market is pricing in a V-shaped economic recovery. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Prediction for Near-Term S&P 500 Downside to 2,000 Goldman Sachs suggests that equity markets are unlikely to make new lows, if the U.S. doesn’t have a second surge in infections after the economy reopens. The year-end S&P 500 target remains 3,000. Image: Bloomberg
Global Equity Market Capitalization Global stock markets lost about $20tn in value so far. Image: Crescat Capital LLC
Sector Composition of the S&P 500 by Equity Capitalization as of March 31, 2020 Chart showing the evolution of S&P 500 sectors over time. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stocks – The Cost of Market Timing This chart shows the impact on performance over time, when investors attempt to time the market. Image: Legg Mason