S&P 500 Decline and P/E Change in Recessions Historically, following a recession, the S&P 500 fall by a median of 22% from peak to trough and S&P multiples contract by a median of 21%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 30-Year Bond Total Return by Year U.S. long-bond yield hits all-time low, with the world in crisis mode. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
VIX and Number of Regions/Cities with Confirmed Coronavirus Case Daily Growth Rate Above 30% This chart shows the correlation between VIX and the number of regions/cities with confirmed coronavirus case daily growth rates above 30%. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Stock Market – 9/11 as Analog to Coronavirus This chart compares 9/11 to coronavirus. It shows the P/E ratio as a percentile, and EPS. Image: Fidelity Investments
Annual S&P 500 EPS Growth and S&P 500 Forward P/E Goldman’s baseline scenario suggests S&P 500 EPS growth of 0% in 2020 and forward P/E multiple equals 19.4x at year-end 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Coronavirus Scenarios and Impact on Global GDP This table suggests the impact of the coronavirus on global GDP. Image: Pictet Asset Management
S&P 500 – 9/11 Analog to Coronavirus The chart shows the S&P 500 index in 2001 indexed to the S&P 500 today. In 2001, the stock market bounced back strongly. Image: Fidelity Investments
High Yield Spread to Worst Is the panic over for high-yield bond investors, as global coronavirus fears intensify? Image: J.P. Morgan
Coronavirus Momentum This chart suggests that the coronavirus momentum may fade next week, as the daily new coronavirus cases outside of China resemble the Chinese outbreak with a lag of one month. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
A History of Recent Fed Intermeeting Rate Cuts In recent history, once the Fed does 50bps emergency rate cut, they normally go 50bps again at next regular meeting. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
S&P 500 Around Emergency Fed Rate Cuts In recent history, the performance of the S&P 500 has been mixed after emergency Fed rate cuts. Image: Nordea and Macrobond