Brent Crude Oil Price in Real Terms The longer the oil shock drags on, the greater the risk it spills into the broader economy. For now, traders are betting this surge won’t last, expecting that tensions will cool and prices will retreat. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History The S&P 500 Financials sector still trades at a discount versus other sectors, while Energy now looks pricey. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth The conflict in the Middle East is set to drag U.S. growth well below trend, with the economy losing steam in the second half as fiscal tailwinds fade and tighter financial conditions bite. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Recession Probability Recession odds in the U.S. have dropped to levels that favor continued growth rather than an imminent slump. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
S&P 500 Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years usually make U.S. stocks more volatile, with policy uncertainty running high before voters head to the polls. Investors hate uncertainty, and election years bring plenty of it. Image: Carson Investment Research
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates The Middle East conflict hasn’t shaken Wall Street’s confidence. Analysts see S&P 500 earnings climbing 17% in both 2026 and 2027, while small caps may deliver a 43% profit surge this year and a further 32% next. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Discretionary Investor Positioning With exposure sitting at the 19th percentile, discretionary investors remain notably cautious. Any shift in sentiment could open the door to further upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTAs have tactically reduced their equity exposure recently to the 43rd percentile, though their positioning stays firmly on the long side. The move shows they’re cautiously optimistic. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Brent Oil Price Forecast Goldman Sachs has lifted its 2026 oil price forecast, now seeing Brent crude averaging $85 a barrel and WTI at $79, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz keep energy markets on edge. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Financials Group Positioning Positioning in financials remains exceptionally light, sitting in just the 2nd percentile, leaving plenty of room to add exposure. That caution looks overdone given the fundamentals. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Returns After 200 Days or More Above the 200-Day MA End Losing the 200-day moving average after staying above it for 200 days or more has usually meant a period of consolidation rather than the start of a deep bear market. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained 8.3% on average over the…