S&P 500 vs. Liquidity Index A slowdown in liquidity growth—particularly if combined with soft economic data—poses a short-term risk to the U.S. equity market, increasing volatility and the likelihood of price declines. Image: TS Lombard
Magnificent Seven Earnings Growth Expectations and Delivered The Mag 7 companies are currently the dominant force behind S&P 500 earnings growth, with an expected 14% year-over-year growth in Q2 2025, far exceeding the remainder of the S&P 500 index. Image: J.P. Morgan
Average Relative Performance of S&P 500 Additions Stocks added to the S&P 500 index typically experience their strongest outperformance before the official announcement, as market participants anticipate and position for the change. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
M2 Money Supply Growth U.S. money supply growth has robustly returned to near its long-term trend. In contrast, the euro area has experienced a slight slowdown in money supply growth recently, although growth rates remain positive. Image: Deutsche Bank
Gold Seasonality Gold benefits from strong seasonal and technical momentum, supported by central bank demand, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks, positioning it for a likely significant price breakout in the coming months. Image: Renaissance Macro Research
Two-Year Rolling Change in the Fed Funds Rate Current rate cut expectations, as priced in by fed funds futures, are consistent with a recession scenario. However, market risk indicators and recent Fed communications suggest this may overestimate the pace of Fed rate cuts. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500/MSCI World and U.S. Dollar Trade-Weighted Index The renewed relative strength and attractiveness of U.S. assets amid global uncertainty and monetary policy differentials have played a central role in driving the U.S. dollar’s recent rebound Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After 60 Days Above the 20-Day Moving Average The S&P 500, after closing above its 20-day moving average for 60 straight days, has historically maintained its upward momentum, with median 12-month gains of 16% and positive returns over 87% of the time. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and Yield Gap With the S&P 500 equity risk premium at historically low levels, the current investment landscape presents significant challenges for equity investors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus Earnings Expectations Analysts are projecting S&P 500 earnings growth of 9.3% in 2025 and 14.0% in 2026. These consensus forecasts reflect a robust expected acceleration in profit growth, particularly moving from 2025 into 2026. Image: Yahoo Finance
S&P 500 Foreign Revenues by Sector S&P 500 companies derive 28% of their total revenues from foreign markets — a figure that has remained relatively stable in recent years. The remaining 72% is generated domestically within the United States. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research