Author: isabelnet

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bull market secured… until it isn’t. In finance, the wise investor always expects the unexpected! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎

U.S. Financial Conditions Index and Real GDP Growth from FCI Last week, U.S. financial conditions tightened significantly following the White House’s announcement of “reciprocal” tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures, raising global concerns among investors and policymakers. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Average Forward S&P 500 Returns Following Large Declines in U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator When the GS sentiment indicator reaches such a low level, the S&P 500 typically delivers an average forward two-week return of approximately +125bps, with a positive hit rate of 70%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Two-day Performance for the S&P 500 The two-day decline of 10.5% in the S&P 500 last Thursday and Friday marked its fifth-worst drop since World War II. The turmoil is likely to persist as long as there are no concrete signs of tariff reductions or de-escalation in trade tensions. Image: Deutche Bank

S&P 500 10% Drop in Two Days A 10% drop in the S&P 500 over two days is unusual, but history shows that sharp declines are often followed by strong recoveries, giving investors reason for optimism. Image: Carson Investment Research

Earnings – Peak to Trough Decline in LTM S&P 500 EPS During Recessions Historically, recessions since World War II have caused a median 13% decline in S&P 500 EPS, often leading to substantial index losses. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The “Liberation Day” effect has set equity markets free—free to plummet, that is! Have a Great Week, Everyone! 😎

Impact on U.S. YoY Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs has cut its 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% and raised its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, citing tighter financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and heightened policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads vs. VIX High-yield credit spreads have widened by over 150bps from their 17-year lows, signaling growing financial stress. While rising credit spreads have often been a precursor to recessions, they can sometimes lead to false signals. Image: Topdown Charts

S&P 500 Annualized 10-Year Total Return Forecasts Goldman Sachs forecasts a 3% average annualized total return for the S&P 500 over the next decade. This projection is notably lower than historical averages, driven by worries about elevated equity valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Large U.S. Tax Hikes Trump’s tariffs represent the most significant U.S. tax increase since 1968, raising widespread concerns about their long-term effects on the economy. Image: J.P. Morgan