The Market Risk Indicator (Global Financial Stress Index) According to BofAML, the global financial stress index is a more accurate market risk indicator than VIX. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Central Banks Main Policy Rate and Balance Sheet – Advanced Economies vs. Emerging Markets Many central banks are running low on ammunition to fight the next downturn, after a decade of cheap money. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Consumer Spending Contribution to U.S. GDP Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy, is driving GDP growth solo. Image: Oxford Economics
Atlanta Fed GDPNow vs. U.S. GDP Growth The art of forecasting U.S. GDP: Atlanta Fed GDPNow vs. U.S. GDP growth. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Returns After 20%-plus Gains at the End of October Historically, the return for the last two months has averaged 6.2%. Image: LPL Research
Federal Reserve Broad Dollar Indexes The dollar’s current level in real terms is elevated, but lower than previous peaks. Image: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Global Debt Levels – Advanced Economies and Emerging Markets Historically, high debts create serious risks. Global debt levels have increased significantly since the Global Financial Crisis. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
S&P 500 vs. U.S. CEO Confidence Survey Economic Expectations The S&P 500 is in “Fear of Missing Out” mode, while CEO confidence has fallen to its lowest level in a decade. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Global GDP Growth Outlook vs. Consensus SocGen remains below the consensus forecasts and expects a mild recession around mid-2020 in the U.S. and a projected U.S. GDP of 0.7%. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Range of Returns Two Years After Fed Rate Cut Historically, equities rally significally, when the Fed eases during soft patches. Image: Barclays Research
Median S&P 500 12-Month Returns Based on Control of U.S. Government A unified government under the Democrats could represent a major risk for the S&P 500 in 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research