S&P 500 Performance Based on Sector-Level Strength Long-term S&P 500 gains have historically followed periods of either broad market participation, where over eight sectors trade above their 200-day moving average, or extreme oversold conditions, with fewer than two sectors doing so. Image: Hi Mount Research
Change in S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Consensus Despite being larger than average, the recent -4% consensus EPS cut is not unprecedented and mirrors past adjustments during periods of heightened uncertainty such as tariff announcements or broader economic concerns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Historical U.S. Tariff Rate and Implied Rate Based on Latest Announcements If the average effective U.S. tariff rate rises to 20.7%, the economic impact could be substantial. Each 1 percentage point increase in the tariff rate is estimated to reduce economic growth by 0.05 percentage point. Image: Deutsche Bank
Combined AAII & II Sentiment So far, the combined readings from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and Investors Intelligence (II) indicate a bullish outlook, reflecting optimism and confidence among market participants. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Consensus EPS Growth AI remains the dominant force behind S&P 500 earnings growth, with EPS projected to increase over the next three years, driven primarily by the Magnificent 7 and the broader technology sector. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
S&P 500 Dividend Yields vs. 10-Year Treasury Yields S&P 500 dividend yields are near historic lows, close to levels seen during the 2000 tech bubble, due to high valuations and companies favoring stock buybacks over dividends, challenging income-focused investors relying on dividends. Image: Deutsche Bank
Bitcoin vs. Gold Market Capitalization If the trend toward digital financial assets continues and Bitcoin adoption expands, Bitcoin’s upside potential compared to gold is substantial—fueled by its fixed supply, digital utility, and strong growth trajectory. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Returns After a Three Month Gain of >25% More good news for bulls: Historically, when the S&P 500 has risen more than 25% over three months, it has never been lower 3, 6, or 12 months later. In fact, one year after these rallies, it has averaged gains of over 21%. Image: Carson…
Financial Conditions Indices Looser U.S. financial conditions bode well for economic growth by fueling consumer spending and business investment—two vital engines driving the economy forward. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 RSI With the S&P 500’s RSI running high, caution is warranted. Market participants should be ready for a potential pullback or a period of consolidation as the market digests overbought levels before pushing higher again. Image: J.P. Morgan
Commodities Ex-Gold vs. Gold When the commodities (ex-gold) to gold ratio falls to an extreme low and then turns upward, it has historically signaled the beginning of major cyclical bull markets in commodities. Image: Topdown Charts