S&P 500 Index and UBS Weighted Global Growth Surprise Index The divergence between the S&P 500 Index and the global growth surprise index could explain why this bull market is so hated. Image: Swedbank Research
S&P 500 Price Return 12-Month Period Following Midterm Election Since 1946, the S&P 500 has never declined in the 12 months following a midterm election. Image: Strategas
U.S. Employment Rate 55+ The U.S. employment rate of older workers is increasing in a long-term trend. Image: Ernie Tedeschi
Probability of VIX Spiking Above 20 and Growth Level The probability of VIX spiking above 20 in the next 3 months is 60% at this level of growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inequality – Wealth per Adult Around the World The U.S. with median wealth per adult at $65.9K, and Canada ($107K), are the wealthiest in the Western Hemisphere. Image: howmuch.net
EUR/USD and Real 10-Year Yield Chart showing EUR/USD against real 10-year yield differentials, which are a fundamental long-term factor for currency pairs. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Central Banks Actions Lead Emerging Markets Manufacturing Surveys Chart suggesting that central banks actions lead emerging markets manufacturing surveys by 8 months. The net number of EM central banks cutting rates has reached 50% of 30 central banks. Image: Pictet Asset Management
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. GDP U.S. ISM indices suggest a slowdown in the US growth rate, but not an imminent recession. Image source: ING Economics
Relative P/E Valuation of Stable Growth vs. Variable Growth S&P 500 Companies Investors are paying a huge premium for stable growth S&P 500 companies vs. variable growth companies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 EPS Forecast Despite the earnings squeeze, Goldman Sachs is still positive on the S&P 500 earnings outlook. In 2020, U.S. and global growth should rebound modestly. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Business Cycle – U.S. Output Gap and Unemployment Rate Chart suggesting that the US economy has slipped into the late stage of the business cycle. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC