U.S. Composite Recession Probability How far is the U.S. recession? Currently, the Composite Recession Probability stands at 19.6%. Historically, the probability of recession increases, when the recession rate exceeds 30%. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
The Drawdowns of 2018-2019 This nice chart shows another good way to measure drawdowns, by looking at valuations and measuring time. Image: Fidelity Investments
Current 20-Month Flat Market vs. Major S&P 500 Tops Since World War II, the U.S. stock market went nowhere three times in the last 20 months. If history repeats itself, it could make an upside breakout. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
S&P 500 and Margin Debt Margin debt has still not recovered from last December’s lows. Usually, it is mostly bullish for stocks, because investors are still fearful. Image: Merk Investments
Advanced Economies – Global GDP Forecast for 2020 Oxford Economics thinks that IMF’s new global GDP growth forecasts for 2020 are too optimistic. Image: Oxford Economics
Stock Buybacks Since 2000 Thanks to tax cuts and low interest rates, the stock market should get around $1 trillion boost via buybacks this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Delinquency Rate of Student Loans since 2003 The delinquency rate of student loans is higher than credit card delinquency, auto loans and mortgages. The main reason is that the interest rate on student loans can be very high. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Inflation – Price Changes Over the Last 20 Years in the U.S. Most important things in life are getting more expensive, while toys are getting more affordable. Image: howmuch.net
U.S. Student Debt, Auto Loan Debt, Credit Card Balance, per Capita Household debt balances have been rising steadily in recent years. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Seasonality The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 seasonality chart from 1985 to 2018 (excluding 2008). This is not a forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs
The Performance of “Deflation Assets” vs. “Inflation Assets” Interesting chart showing the performance of “Deflation Asset” vs. “Inflation Assets” since 1960. “Deflation Assets”: Government Bonds, US Investment Grade, S&P 500, US Consumer Discretionary, Growth and US High Yield “Inflation Assets”: TIPS, EAFE, US Banks, Value and Cash Image: BofA Merrill Lynch