Federal Reserve Money Supply M2 Leads Global Manufacturing PMI Chart suggesting that the Federal Reserve money supply M2 leads global manufacturing PMI by 18 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
S&P 500 Hedge Fund Long Positioning Speculative long positions in the S&P 500 are near levels that have marked major bottoms in the past. Image: Macro Ops
Blue Chip Economic Indicators Surveys and Average Probability of U.S. Recession The probability of U.S. recession increases to 39% for 2020, based on Blue Chip Economic Indicators surveys. Image: J.P. Morgan
MSCI World Index Valuation at Cycle Peaks and Troughs On average, the MSCI World Index currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio that has marked cyclical peaks in the stock market over the past 50 years. Image: Charles Schwab
Demographics – U.S. 10-Year Rate, Labor Force Growth and Nominal GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the current trend in labor force growth and nominal GDP growth points to higher rates. Image: Swedbank Research
Money Market Fund Flows and Probability of Recession Investors move to safe assets by raising their cash holdings, like 2007/2008. This chart suggests that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Recessions After U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Market Peaks Prior to NBER Recessions Analysis based on the 10Y-3M yield curve inversion, suggesting the S&P 500 peak-to-trough in percentage terms, and NBER recession start and end dates. Image: Pictet Asset Management
U.S. Market Shares in China U.S. companies are clearly losing market share in key sectors in China, while President Trump wants American companies to leave China. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Commercial and Industrial Loans Interesting chart suggesting that U.S. commercial and industrial loans are expected to slow. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
Housing Bubble Risk Munich is the city with the highest risk of a housing bubble developing, followed by Toronto, Hong Kong and Amsterdam. Image: Statista
U.S. Misery Index and Average Forward Returns The U.S. misery index (core inflation + unemployment) is approaching all-time low, because both inflation and unemployment are very low. Historically, average forward returns have been higher than the overall S&P 500 average.