Author: isabelnet

Central Banks Hiking/Cutting Policy Rate A race to the bottom in global interest rates? Central Banks policy rates have started to decline again. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

S&P 500 and Pre-Election Year In pre-election years since 1950, the chart suggests that the U.S. stock market doesn’t bottom until Thanksgiving. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC

Global PMI Cycles Interesting table showing global PMI cycles: if investors get the global PMI right, they do well. Image: Pervalle Global

Japan – Explaining 10-Year Yields Great chart suggesting that demographics explain Japan’s 10-year yields. An R² of 0.87 is quite high and significant. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Cass Freight Index and U.S. GDP The Cass Freight Index suggests first signs of manufacturing activity bottoming out. Image: Macronond, SEB X-Asset Research

World Economy – Industry as Share of Total GDP Industry represented 25% of the world’s GDP in 2018, and a larger percentage of GDP in emerging countries than in developed countries. Image: howmuch.net

Housing – U.S. Construction Spending and Recessions Historically, when the three month moving average turned negative, a U.S. recession occurred within a 12-month period, 7 times out of 9. Image: Pictet Asset Management

University of Michigan Current Economic Conditions Index and Recessions This chart shows that historical drops of more than -20 points in consumer confidence current conditions have signaled recessions since 1979. The current drop stands at -15.9 points. Image: Knowledge Leaders Capital

S&P 500 EPS and South Korea Exports Chart showing the quite good correlation between S&P 500 EPS and South Korea exports, and suggesting this does not bode well for S&P 500 EPS. Image: Nordea and Macrobond

China Property Sales and Total Credit Growth According to Gavekal, Chinese monetary policy is still in a moderate “selective easing” mode. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

S&P 500 Trailing Price-to-Earnings Ratio vs. Real Fed Funds Rate Great chart showing the S&P 500 12-month trailing P/E ratio vs. the real Fed funds rate (R² = 0.79). Image: Stifel