ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Yield Curve Inversion This chart suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index tends to trough 19 months after the U.S. (10Y-3M) yield curve inverts. Image: Pictet Asset Management
U.S. Recession and Presidential Re-election If there isn’t a recession ahead of the U.S. presidential re-election, presidents have won every time since the First World War. The spreadsheet also shows that five of the seven times there was a recession, the current U.S. President lost the re-election. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential…
Historical Default Rate and Recession Periods in the U.S. Default rates on high-yield corporate bonds have exceeded 10% over the past three recessions. Image: Altman-Kuehne and NBER
Presidential Election – U.S. Presidential Score Sheet for the Final Year of the First Term Historically, a U.S. president is re-elected when at least consumer confidence and the unemployment rate improve. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
Falling Real Yields Allow Zombie Companies to Live On The cost of extended monetary easing: the percentage of zombie companies continues to rise as U.S. 10-year real yields fall. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Returns Under Various Presidents since the Inception of the Dow Jones For President Trump, the stock market is a scorecard. This spreadsheet shows the Dow Jones performance across different presidencies since 1896. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
S&P 500 Return Rest of Year If August Is Negative When August was negative, the S&P 500 was higher 14 of the last 14 times for the rest of the year. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Core Inflation Difference (vs. U.S. core PCE) Leads EUR/USD This chart suggests that the core inflation difference (vs. U.S. core PCE) leads the EUR/USD by four months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Sovereign Ratings Map Interesting map of sovereign ratings across the world in July 2019, using Moody’s ratings. Source: Moody’s Sovereign Ratings, Aswath Damodaran
S&P 500 Average Performance -2Y/+2Y with U.S. Yield Curve Inversion History tells us that on average, the S&P 500 peaks 42 weeks after (10Y-3M) yield curve inversion. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Dividend Yield of S&P 500 Components Yields on equities seem competitive vs. U.S. Treasuries, but equity risk does not disappear because a company pays a dividend. Image: Bespoke Investment Group