Author: isabelnet

Who Owns the Equity Market? Most of the equity market is owned by households and mutual funds. But ETFs and foreigners continue to gain share. Image: Bianco Research

U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate vs. Russell 2000 Index Could this interesting correlation persist over time? Image: Hayek and Keynes

Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession.“ Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC​

China – Equity Returns and Money Supply This chart shows the relationship between M2 money supply and China’s stock market since 2003. Image: Jeroen Blokland

Commodities to S&P 500 Ratio This great chart shows that the ratio is currently at a 50 year low and far below the long-term average. Image: Crescat Capital LLC

Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator Historically, before recessions, heavy truck sales tend to peak (red arrow) and then decline (black arrow). Currently, heavy truck sales have a nice upward slope and show no sign of peaking. So, it suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon. You may also like “U.S. Heavy…

Small Business Optimism Roars Back, Rivaling Historic Highs Small Business Optimism Index improved: expectations for sales, business conditions, and expansion rose. That’s good news for the U.S. economy. See why the “Small Businesses Optimism Index” is a good recession indicator. Image: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)

Second-half Recovery in Growth? Better economic data could extend the business cycle. Currently, G7 & BRIC leading indicators remain encouraging and suggest no imminent recession. Image: Richardson Wealth

American Semiconductor Sales Lead ISM Manufacturing Index by 3 Months This chart shows that the downtrend in American semiconductor sales is currently worrying. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index since 2011.” Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

2019 Is Tracking Similar to Prior Waterfall Declines Where PMI was above 50 at end of 19% decline in 60 days. So, it suggests 3,100 for the S&P 500 by year end. Image: Fundstrat

S&P 500 Up at Least +4.5% from Monday Close through Friday Close Last week, the S&P500 was up at least +4.5% from Monday’s close through Friday’s close. History shows it is not bullish. Image: OddStats