Gold Net Long Managed Money on COMEX Rising speculative positioning in gold signals increased bullishness but also raises the risk of a short-term pullback, as prices often correct after speculative positions become excessively extended. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Russell 2000 Net Futures Contracts Asset managers and leveraged funds hold large net short positions in Russell 2000 futures despite recent small-cap gains, creating conditions for potential short covering that could trigger further upward momentum in small-cap futures. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Market Pricing of Fed Funds Rate and 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Markets are pricing the fed funds rate at 2.9% by year-end 2026, an optimistic view that assumes cooling inflation and economic resilience not yet fully endorsed by the Fed. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In August, U.S. real retail sales stand at 2.00% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Early October has quietly been kind to the S&P 500: since 1950, the first half of the month ranks as the third-best half‑month performance period in the calendar year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index Easing financial conditions drive U.S. growth by boosting spending and investment. Still, keeping a close eye on inflation risks remains essential. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nasdaq 100 Futures Positioning Despite recent profit-taking, asset managers and leveraged funds remain heavily net long in Nasdaq 100 futures, suggesting continued confidence in technology and growth stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Fed Funds Rate Scenario Analysis In its baseline scenario, Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Fed will cut interest rates from 4.3% to 3.1% by the end of 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns After Fed Interest Rate Cuts Resume When the Fed delivered just one or two rate cuts after pausing—seen in four different cycles—the U.S. economy was typically strong, with cyclical sectors such as financials and industrials outperforming the broader market. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Performance After 30% Rallies in Five Months A rally of over 30% in just five months is an exceptionally rare occurrence for the S&P 500, having happened only five times since 1950. In every case, the index was higher one year later, with average gains exceeding 18%. Image: Carson Investment Research
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTAs’ overall equities allocation is at the 92nd percentile, indicating heavy exposure to equities, but this also raises the risk of sharp market pullbacks if trend-following strategies unwind during reversals or volatility spikes. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation