Magnificent Seven Contribution to S&P 500 Returns The Magnificent Seven stocks have played a crucial role in driving the S&P 500’s performance in 2024, continuing the momentum from their remarkable gains in 2023. Image: Alpine Macro
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day The bulls are celebrating like kids with their favorite new gadget, thrilled by the S&P 500’s 1.10% jump to kick off the Santa Claus Rally! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Despite rising 10-year real U.S. Treasury yields indicating tighter financial conditions, the stock market remains unaffected due to favorable economic indicators, strong corporate earnings forecasts, and anticipated supportive monetary policy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Treasury Index – Monthly Total Return The U.S. Treasury market has faced significant challenges in December, resulting in a near-flat performance for the year and leaving investors feeling as confused as a cat at a dog show! Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Returns during the Santa Claus Rally Bulls celebrate the Santa Claus Rally, which typically sees U.S. stock prices rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. Since 1950, this rally has averaged a gain of 1.3%. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – Market Capitalization of Stock Market / M2 Money Supply The current high market capitalization of U.S. equities relative to M2 suggests that investors are anticipating very optimistic future earnings and a stable economic outlook. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Forecast Goldman Sachs forecasts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to hit 4.35% by the end of 2025, diverging from current futures market expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equities as a Percent of Financial Assets With favorable market conditions and increasing stock valuations, Americans now hold more than 37% of all assets in equities, marking a record high. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day While bears are asking Santa for gold due to its reputation as a safe haven in uncertain times and a hedge against inflation, bulls are requesting stocks, confident that the bull market is here to stay! Happy Holidays, Everyone! 😎
Predicted and Actual Returns for the S&P 500 Index Wall Street strategists have a long history of inaccurate forecasts, having been overly pessimistic in four out of the past five years, which has led to consistent underestimations of market performance. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Performance After 10 Days or More of Decliners > Advancers Bulls are smiling again! Since 1974, when the S&P 500 had more decliners than advancers for 10 or more consecutive days, it has been positive 100% of the time over the following 12 months, with an average gain of 17.9%. Image: Carson Investment…