S&P 500 Index Single Day Average Returns Saint Patrick’s Day is putting a smile on the bulls, as it’s not just one of the greenest days of the year but also historically the strongest for U.S. stocks in March, leaving bears short on luck. Happy Saint Patrick’s Day! 🍀☘ Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Return Around 7 Major Geopolitical Risk Events The S&P 500’s 5% slide from its January peak mirrors the market’s typical pullback after major geopolitical shocks. Many investors see the turbulence as temporary, betting that history’s pattern of quick recoveries will hold. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies are slightly overweight at the 55th percentile, while discretionary investors positioning is still cautious at the 21st percentile. A change in sentiment could pave the way for more upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
EPS Revisions Upward EPS revisions across the S&P 500, Topix, and especially MSCI EM point to growing confidence in 2026 earnings, with momentum still tilted toward strength even as the STOXX 600 struggles to keep pace. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 and Crude Oil Since the conflict erupted in the Middle East, the S&P 500 has been moving almost opposite to oil, showing a striking 91% inverse correlation. When crude rises, investors often worry about squeezed U.S. consumers and slower growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance When Q1 Low Breaks the December Low Close When the S&P 500 sinks below its December low in the first quarter, history tends to flash a warning light. On average, U.S. stocks have gained only 0.2% for the full year when that happens. Image: Carson Investment Research
Oil Price Fair Value Oil is trading 56% above its estimated medium‑term fair value. Apart from the 2022 shock peak, the market has rarely looked this overbought, leaving room for downside if conditions normalize. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Around Major Geopolitical Events U.S. stocks have a habit of looking past turbulence in oil. After past geopolitical flare-ups, the S&P 500 has usually pushed higher, and this episode could follow the same script. Image: TS Lombard
Estimated Oil Exports Through Strait Hormuz, Based on Vessel Count Goldman Sachs has toughened its base case for the Strait of Hormuz, now expecting 21 days of minimal crude flows followed by a month‑long recovery toward normal levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index U.S. rate volatility keeps climbing as Middle East tensions shake investors, pushing the MOVE index above 95 and pulling stocks lower. The spike tells you everything about the market mood right now. Image: The Daily Shot
Purchasing Power of the U.S. Dollar (Measured by Inflation): Invested vs. Uninvested Gold hasn’t lost its glow, but U.S. stocks have shone brighter since 1928. Look far enough ahead, and the edge moves to assets that build value, not just store it. Over time, innovation compounds more powerfully than preservation. Image: Real Investment Advice