U.S. Long Term Government Bonds (+15y) Rolling 10-Year Annualized Returns Long-dated U.S. Treasury 10-year returns are currently nearing 62-year lows, raising questions about the potential for better returns in the future. Image: BofA Global Investment…
Money Market Fund Flows In the lead-up to U.S. elections, money market funds, which are seen as a safe haven, frequently see inflows as investors aim to lower their risk exposure. Image: BofA Global Investment…
S&P 500 Index and Fed Funds Effective Rate While Fed rate cuts typically provide a short-term boost to market sentiment, historical trends suggest they often coincide with economic slowdowns. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average Gold Returns After Trading Certain Distances from 200-Day Moving Average Gold is currently 15% above the 200-day moving average, suggesting short-term bullish sentiment. However, historical trends indicate that investors should brace for potentially flat…
Central Bank Gold Holdings Despite a significant gold price rally, private investors have largely been absent, especially compared to the aggressive purchases made by central banks. Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. Domiciled Mutual Funds While U.S. money market holdings remain historically low, equity allocations are high, reflecting a significant shift in investor behavior towards riskier assets in pursuit of higher returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
Percent of 10 Yield Curves Inverted Historically, inverted yield curves have successfully anticipated every recession in the United States, highlighting their importance as an economic indicator. Will this time be an exception? Image: Real Investment…
% of Days per Year to Make a New All-Time High for the S&P 500 The S&P 500’s performance this year reflects a strong bullish trend, with over one-fifth of trading days achieving new all-time…
S&P 500 and S&P 500 Cumulative Net Up Volume Recent upside breakouts in S&P 500 cumulative net up volume, along with other bullish indicators, suggest that the S&P 500 may continue to reach new highs,…
Sentiment – Global Equity Risk-Love The Global Equity Risk-Love indicator, currently at the 68th percentile, has moved out of the euphoria territory, allowing for potential upside as we approach year-end. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics
U.S. Recessions – 6-Month Fed Funds Minus Current Fed Funds Rate Historically, U.S. recessions have often followed periods of bearish short-term interest rates, particularly when the Fed cuts rates in response to economic downturns or…