U.S. Federal Funds Effective Rate Less CPI To combat inflation, the Fed has raised interest rates aggressively to their highest level in years, resulting in the real federal funds rate reaching a post-GFC high. Image:…

Valuation – Relative Forward P/E of Russell 1000 Value vs. Growth Indices The current landscape for value and growth investing reveals a significant and persistent valuation gap, with value stocks trading at lower prices relative…

Performance of $10,000 Invested in the S&P 500 the Past 20 Years Considering the challenges of market timing, particularly the risk of missing the market’s best days, most investors would benefit more from adopting a…

S&P 500 – Short Interest on the SPY and QQQ U.S. ETFs Low short interest in the SPY and QQQ U.S. ETFs suggests little speculation on price declines, which affects market dynamics by lowering the…

S&P 500 1-Day Move to CPI The U.S. equity market’s response to CPI data is becoming less pronounced, influenced by shifting investor sentiment about interest rates and overall economic conditions. Image: BofA Global Research

S&P 500 Stock Splits – Median Relative Performance vs. Sector While stock splits do not inherently change a company’s value, the increased investor interest they generate often leads to short and medium-term outperformance relative to…

Global Debt Global debt reached an all-time high of $313tn at the end of 2023, highlighting the challenges and potential risks associated with managing and servicing debt in both developed and developing economies. Image: BofA…

Rates and Dollar Forecast BofA expects the Fed to cut rates in September, adjusting its previous expectations. While market expectations for rate cuts have risen, the Fed hasn’t given a clear signal and will rely…

U.S. Treasury Interest Payments The U.S. government’s growing interest payments, driven by rising debt and rates, pose significant risks to the economy and financial markets. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

S&P 500 vs. 37-Week Rate of Change Historically, a rise of over 30% in the 37-week rate of change of the S&P 500 Index has served as a warning signal for potential corrections. Image: Real…

U.S. Private Sector Financial Assets % of GDP The growing disconnect between U.S. financial asset values and GDP raises concerns about the widening wealth gap, potential systemic risks, economic instability, and policy challenges. Image: BofA…