Gold and U.S. 10-Year Real Rates Gold prices typically exhibit an inverse relationship with U.S. real interest rates, as investors often shift their holdings between gold and interest-bearing assets based on the opportunity cost of…
S&P 500 Returns After the Election The U.S. stock market has shown a notable tendency to perform well following presidential elections. In fact, after the last ten elections, stocks have increased in value nine times,…
S&P 500 Around U.S. Election Date Following the 2020 presidential election, the U.S. stock market exhibited robust growth. Can investors expect a similar trend after the 2024 election? Image: Deutsche Bank
Difference Between Realized and Consensus Estimate of S&P 500 EPS While S&P 500 companies continue to beat EPS estimates, indicating underlying strength, recent data suggests this trend is moderating compared to previous quarters Image: Goldman…
U.S. Equity Sentiment Conditions Index U.S. equity sentiment appears to be at relatively depressed levels heading into the 2024 U.S. presidential election, due to heightened uncertainty, market volatility, and concerns about potential policy shifts. Image:…
MSCI Cyclicals/Defensives Return During anticipated economic expansions, investors lean towards cyclical stocks for their growth potential, while defensive stocks serve as a buffer during economic downturns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Total Equity Fund Flows Contrary to the usual caution observed in U.S. election years, 2024 has seen robust equity fund inflows, defying the typical pattern of investors waiting until after the elections. Image: Deutsche Bank…
Contributions to Year-on-Year Headline CPI Inflation The combination of declining contributions from key sectors like shelter and transportation is expected to lead to a notable slowdown in U.S. headline CPI inflation, reaching 2.2% by the…
S&P 500 Market Concentration vs. 10-Year Annualized Forward Returns High concentration in the S&P 500 may boost short-term performance, but it often signals lower future returns, particularly during non-recessionary periods. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
U.S. Presidential Election Recent prediction market data indicates that the gap between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential race is narrowing. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 3-Month Seasonality Returns Will the U.S. stock market keep investors smiling? The three-month period of November through January has traditionally been the strongest for U.S. stock market performance. Image: Carson Investment Research