Dow Jones Performance After the First New High After More Than a Year Without a New High Historically, when the Dow Jones has reached new highs following a period of more than a year without…
Fed Balance Sheet Expansion/Contraction vs. S&P 500 The contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet tends to be a headwind for the S&P 500, as reduced liquidity in the financial system may have negative implications for…
FY2 P/E Multiple of S&P 500 Top and Bottom Valuation Quintiles The valuation gap between high and low valuation U.S. stocks remains elevated, presenting potential opportunities for value investors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Flexible and Sticky Inflation Flexible inflation (core goods) has fallen significantly and sticky inflation (core services) is still declining, which is good news as it suggests a moderation in the inflation rate. Image: Federal Reserve…
Performance – Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500 Seasonality Small caps historically tend to outperform the S&P 500 from December to February. Allocating a portion of the portfolio to small cap stocks during this time may…
10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Rate vs. U.S. Financial Conditions Index The decoupling of U.S. financial conditions from U.S. real rates persists. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Effective Fed Funds Rate and S&P 500 Index Return vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Return Is 2024 poised to be the year for bonds, given that the median relative performance spread between stocks and bonds…
Growth vs. Value – Relative Price Return In 2023, growth stocks have outperformed value stocks by a significant margin. This is often the case when economic growth is relatively weak and inflation declines. Image: Goldman…
China Property Stocks The sharp decline in Chinese property stocks, reaching levels unseen since the Global Financial Crisis, is worrisome considering the crucial role of the real estate sector in China’s economy. Image: BofA Global…
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio The valuation of the S&P 500 index tends to expand after the Fed’s first cut, providing valuable insight into the potential impact of the Fed’s decisions on the…
Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS) Declining wage growth and employment would allow the Fed to make substantial cuts in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy