Interest Rates – Fed Funds Rate Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to implement three rate cuts in 2024, down from its earlier projection of four rate cuts, in response to elevated inflation data and…

Market-Implied Long-Term S&P 500 Growth Expectations The implied long-term growth rate for the S&P 500 is currently +11%, which is above the long-term average but still below the levels seen during the tech bubble. Image:…

Inflation – Potential Paths for U.S. Core CPI If the Fed cuts rates in June, U.S. core CPI is expected to exceed the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which could pose challenges for the central bank…

S&P 500 NTM EPS vs. Total Return Level NTM EPS estimates exert a powerful influence on the performance and direction of the U.S. equity market, making them a significant driving force. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Returns – S&P 500 Index >5% YTD on Day 50 Since 1954, when the S&P 500 index has risen by more than 5% on day 50, the rest of the year has been higher 96%…

When Do You Expect the U.S. Equity Market Will Peak? 77% of financial advisors believe the bull market will continue beyond 2024, as they expect stellar corporate results, easy financial conditions, and lower interest rates…

S&P 500 and Deviation Above 50-Day Moving Average As the deviation of the S&P 500 index from its 50-day moving average is reaching extreme levels, speculation mounts regarding the potential for a short-term market correction.…

S&P 500 to M2 Ratio The rising S&P 500 to M2 ratio suggests a potential overvaluation in the U.S. stock market. This trend implies greater demand for stocks compared to the supply of money, worrying…

U.S. 10-Year Real Rate A potential rise in U.S. real rates could cause the collapse of the AI bubble, leading to turbulence in the stock market. Overvalued AI companies facing declines could trigger widespread market…

Euro to U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) The euro’s decrease in value relative to the U.S. dollar seems to be a result of underlying structural factors. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

S&P 500 Index – Estimated Next 12-Month Operating Margin The decline in S&P 500 operating margins excluding the Magnificent Seven persists, suggesting that margin headwinds could remain challenging. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management