Effective Fed Funds Rate and S&P 500 Index Return vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Return Is 2024 poised to be the year for bonds, given that the median relative performance spread between stocks and bonds…
Growth vs. Value – Relative Price Return In 2023, growth stocks have outperformed value stocks by a significant margin. This is often the case when economic growth is relatively weak and inflation declines. Image: Goldman…
China Property Stocks The sharp decline in Chinese property stocks, reaching levels unseen since the Global Financial Crisis, is worrisome considering the crucial role of the real estate sector in China’s economy. Image: BofA Global…
Fed Funds Rate vs. U.S. Job Openings (JOLTS) Declining wage growth and employment would allow the Fed to make substantial cuts in interest rates. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 – % Stocks That Are Within 10% of Their All-Time Highs Highs The S&P 500 is nearing its all-time high, but only 24% of individual stocks are within 10% of their peak levels,…
VIX and Geopolitical Risk Index The VIX tends to be sensitive to geopolitical events and can serve as an indicator of market sentiment during times of heightened geopolitical risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Home Price Forecasts Morgan Stanley projects a 3% decline in U.S. home prices for 2024. However, their bull case scenario predicts a 5% increase, while the bear case scenario anticipates an 8% drop. Image:…
Market Pricing of Fed Cuts vs. Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield When the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, it often leads to lower real yields, as investors adjust their expectations. Image:…
EM/DM Relative Performance vs. U.S. Dollar The strength of the U.S. dollar can affect the relative performance of EM/DM equities. A weak U.S. dollar has historically led to outperformance of emerging market equities. Image: BofA…
S&P 500 and Monthly MACD The overall trend of the S&P 500 is upward, as indicated by the rising 12-month moving average, and the positive signal from the MACD further supports this notion. Image: BofA…
S&P 500 Realized Volatility During Recession During recessions, there is often increased uncertainty and risk aversion among investors, which can lead to higher levels of volatility in the U.S. stock market. Image: BofA Global Research