S&P 500 Stocks and Non-S&P 500 Stocks as a % of U.S. Large Cap Funds AUM Despite the abundance of stocks, the lack of interest in investing beyond the “Magnificent Seven” creates bias, leading to…
Financial Conditions and U.S. Recessions The Fed may face challenges due to looser financial conditions, as it requires tighter conditions in order to effectively curb inflation towards its 2% target. Will the Fed adopt a…
S&P 500 – Monthly Seasonality for Year 3 of the Presidential Cycle Investors and traders can gain valuable insights from historical trends. In the third year of the presidential cycle, December has historically been a…
S&P 500 Performance After Four Week Win Streak >10% When the S&P 500 experiences four consecutive weeks of gains and achieves a cumulative increase of over 10% throughout this period, it can be interpreted as…
Valuation – Distribution of Sector FY2 P/E Ratios Relative to S&P 500 The energy sector’s discount to the S&P 500 suggests potential investment opportunities for those who believe in the energy sector’s long-term growth prospects.…
Passive vs. Active Rolling 6-Month Flows Flows into passive mutual funds and ETFs continue to surpass those into active funds. This trend is driven by factors such as lower costs, strong performance, and the rise…
Valuation – MSCI U.S. Forward 12-Month Price/Earnings Ratio vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Yield While rising real yields have historically been associated with a decrease in stock market performance, the U.S. equity market has showcased…
S&P 500 Average Monthly Performance and How Often Each Month Is Higher in Pre-Election Years In December, during a pre-election year, U.S. stocks typically exhibit notable performance, indicating a positive trend and potential opportunities for…
Number of Global Central Bank Hikes and Cuts The current trend of global central banks cutting interest rates at the fastest pace since August 2020 could significantly impact financial markets, borrowing costs, and overall economic…
Valuation – S&P 500 Normalized P/E Ratio At 22x, the S&P 500 is currently trading over 40% above the long-term average, which suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for stocks in the…
A Typical 10%+ Selloff in the S&P 500 The speed and magnitude of a rally following a correction can vary. The recent rally in the S&P 500 has been faster than usual, which is indicative…