U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. GDP Growth The large gap that currently exists between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. real GDP will eventually close, as economic indicators tend to align over time.…
S&P 500 Performance When Higher in November, December, January, February, and March Since 1950, when the S&P 500 index has been higher in November, December, January, February, and March, the rest of the year has…
What Presents the Biggest Risk to Markets over the Next 6 Months in Your View? According to a recent survey, 27% of JPM customers consider high valuations to be the biggest risk to markets, indicating…
S&P 500 Performance After >25% Gain in 21 Weeks A 25% or more increase in the S&P 500 in 21 weeks (using the first signal in a cluster) suggests a bullish outlook over the next…
S&P 500 Performance After 118 or More New 52-Week Highs 118 new 52-week highs for the S&P 500 (using first signal in 6 months) suggest a bullish outlook over the next 12 months, with an…
Global Government Debt Global government debt has skyrocketed since the global financial crisis, reaching its highest level in peacetime and posing significant challenges and vulnerabilities for governments and economies worldwide. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Returns – The 4-Year Presidential Cycle The current presidential cycle for the S&P 500 is extended when compared to both the average and first term cycles, highlighting the market’s unique dynamics and complexity.…
Do You Believe the Risk of an Equity Market Correction at Some Point Over the Next 3-6 Months Is High or Low? JPMorgan’s survey reveals that 82% of their clients anticipate a high likelihood of…
FMS Investors – Net % Overweight Equities – Net % Overweight Cash FMS investors still show a greater inclination to invest in the stock market and less interest in holding cash, indicating their ongoing preference…
U.S. Dollar vs. S&P 500 Index Forward Price/Earnings Keeping a close eye on the correlation between the U.S. dollar and S&P 500 valuation multiples is essential, especially considering the potential end of the greenback’s bull…
Interest Rates – Fed Funds Rate Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to implement three rate cuts in 2024, down from its earlier projection of four rate cuts, in response to elevated inflation data and…