Bear Market Rally or New Bull Market?
Bear Market Rally or New Bull Market? Most FMS investors do not think this is a new bull market. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Bear Market Rally or New Bull Market? Most FMS investors do not think this is a new bull market. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Sentiment – S&P 500 vs. NAAIM Exposure Index Active investment managers are chasing price. Are they too optimistic? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Net Percent of Domestic Respondents Tightening Standards Lending standards are way too tight. Bye-bye soft landing? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Forward EPS vs. Fed Funds Rate When forward EPS growth goes negative, the Federal Reserve typically does not hike rates. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Annual 60/40 Portfolio Performance Will the 60/40 portfolio continue to perform well in 2023? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Loan Demand Demand for commercial & industrial (C&I) and commercial real estate (CRE) loans remains weak, which does not bode well for a soft landing. Image: BofA Global Research
Stocks – MSCI EMU Earnings Yield Minus Real 10-Year Bund Yield (Equity Risk Premium) The equity risk premium below its 10-year average does not bode well for eurozone stocks. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Changes in U.S. Liquidity U.S. liquidity is declining, which is a headwind for U.S. stocks. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Recession – Net % Tightening Standards for Credit Card Loans U.S. banks are concerned about the risk of a recession, as they are tightening their lending standards. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Following Quarter EPS Revisions Through Earnings Season EPS revisions are rapidly deteriorating. An earnings recession is currently not priced in by the market. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Inflation-Adjusted S&P 500 12 Months Before and 18 Months After Inflation Peaks Since WWII, the S&P 500 has bottomed seven months after the peak in CPI inflation. Image: Stifel