Recessions and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Expectations Less Present Situation Historically, low consumer confidence expectations have not been a positive sign for the U.S. economy. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

One-Year U.S. Treasury Credit Default Swap Spread The one-year U.S. Treasury credit default swap spread is currently twice what it was during the 2011 and 2013 debates over the debt ceiling, indicating that there is…

Seasonality – Average Rolling Monthly S&P 500 Return Sell in May this year? Since 1950, the average annualized return of the S&P 500 from May through October has been 5%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

Months of Yield Curve Inversion Before Recession BofA remains bearish as a recession in the United States is becoming increasingly likely. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims The U.S. labor market is cooling, as continuing claims are up 22.5% YoY. Image: The Daily Shot

Blended Money Supply U.S. money supply is shrinking rapidly. Historically, U.S. nominal GDP growth has closely tracked money supply growth. Image: Deutsche Bank

Weight of Largest Stock in S&P 500 The concentration of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 is currently at its highest level in many years. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Macro Research

MSCI All Countries vs. Median Profit Margin All Countries Will global corporate profitability improve in the coming quarters? Image: Topdown Charts

Valuation – S&P 500 PE Ratio and Bond Yields Bond yields have an impact on the equity market multiple. Image: Richardson Wealth

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Goldman Sachs is less bearish on the U.S. dollar in 2023, given the weakness of the global economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Realized Volatility Around Previous Recession Start U.S. equity volatility looks attractive. Image: J.P. Morgan