Probability of U.S. Recession Beginning Within 12 Months The probability of a U.S. recession beginning within 12 months remains high. Image: J.P. Morgan

S&P 500 E-Mini – Non-Commercial Net Positioning There is a massive short position building up against the S&P 500. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 and Last Hike in Federal Reserve Bank Rate Hiking Cycles The last Fed rate hike is not necessarily bearish for U.S. stocks over the next 12 months. Image: Carson Investment Research

Gold – Beta of USD/xxx to Equity Market Volatility Related to Government Spending Gold has been a very good hedge against debt ceiling worries in the past. Image: Deutsche Bank

Headline Inflation and Future S&P 500 Index Returns When inflation is high, future returns on U.S. equities tend to be lower than average. Image: True Insights

House Pricing Index Rising borrowing costs and interest rates are impacting global housing markets and driving down prices in many developed markets. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Equity Market Volatility Related to Uncertainty over Government Spending Equity market volatility may spike when the debt ceiling is under discussion. Image: Deutsche Bank

Recessions and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Expectations Less Present Situation Historically, low consumer confidence expectations have not been a positive sign for the U.S. economy. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

One-Year U.S. Treasury Credit Default Swap Spread The one-year U.S. Treasury credit default swap spread is currently twice what it was during the 2011 and 2013 debates over the debt ceiling, indicating that there is…

Seasonality – Average Rolling Monthly S&P 500 Return Sell in May this year? Since 1950, the average annualized return of the S&P 500 from May through October has been 5%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

Months of Yield Curve Inversion Before Recession BofA remains bearish as a recession in the United States is becoming increasingly likely. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy