Earnings – PPI vs. U.S. EPS Growth U.S. earnings per share are expected to decline. Image: Steno Research

EPS – Real M2 Growth vs. S&P 500 12-Month Forward Earnings-Per-Share Estimate The decline in real M2 growth does not bode well for S&P 500 earnings. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

S&P 500 Hit Ratio The past year was a challenging year for picking U.S. stocks. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

U.S. Recession – Philadelphia Fed’s State Coincident Indexes – Number of States with Negative Growth Recession risks are still increasing in the United States. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

S&P 500 Excluding 5 Worst Days vs. S&P 500 Excluding 5 Best Days Timing the U.S. stock market is quite difficult. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Real GDP Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs estimates a 35% probability that the U.S. economy enters recession over the next 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. MNI Chicago PMI The MNI Chicago PMI for December was better than expected, but remains in negative territory. Will the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI fall further? Image: The Daily Shot

Valuation – S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio on Smoothed EPS The S&P 500 is still not cheap. Image: Stifel

Volatility – MOVE Index U.S. Treasury bond market volatility is still elevated, despite some improvement. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Short-Term High-Grade Fund Flows Investors are putting their money back into short-term high-grade funds. Image: BofA Global Research

Equities – FANG+ Index vs. Major 5 Central Banks Index The contraction of central bank balance sheets tends to push tech giants lower. Image: Deutsche Bank